Last Sunday, Jan. 23, participants in the 45th installation of the world championship of professional football, also known as the Super Bowl, were determined. This year’s big contest pits arguably the two most tradition-rich franchises in the National Football League, when the AFC champion Pittsburgh Steelers and the NFC champion Green Bay Packers square off on Feb. 6, at Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
The Packers, one of football’s oldest franchises with the moniker of “Titletown,” was the dominant team in the 1960s, winning five NFL championships in the pre-Super Bowl era and the first two Super Bowl titles. Green Bay relived those glory days with its win over New England in Super Bowl 31.
Pittsburgh was the winningest championship team in the 1970s, capturing four Super Bowls in a six-year span, culminating with back-to-back wins in Super Bowls 13 and 14. The Steelers have enjoyed resurgence in the past six seasons with wins in Super Bowls 40 and 43.
This year’s championship has all the trappings of a classic showdown. Both teams have saved their best football for the postseason and are battle-tested. The Packers had to win three road games to get to the big game. The Steelers, in the meantime, had to win a pair of slugfests at home against Baltimore and the New York Jets to punch its ticket to Texas.
For the next two weeks, there will be endless chatter and stories about how the teams match up and which team has the edge. With that in mind, I’ve decided to put on my analyst hat, make a shade tree assessment of which team has the edge in several categories and pick a winner.
Offense: Green Bay has shown the proclivity to pass the pigskin, and has shown quick-strike ability during the regular season and playoffs. After waiting in the wings for a couple of seasons behind legendary quarterback Brett Favre, current Packer signal-caller Aaron Rodgers is one of the league’s most exciting young players, as he amassed more than 4,000 yards passing and 28 touchdown passes this season.
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| Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger (pictured left) & Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers |
Pittsburgh is a hard-nosed football team that uses its physicality to gain success. The toughness begins at the quarterback position with Ben Roethlisberger, who is a strong-armed passer whose large frame makes him tough for defenders to bring down. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as the team’s top running back, cementing his status as a big-time player with more than 100 yards rushing in its AFC title win over the Jets. The Steelers have a pair of talented young receivers in Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders, with veteran complementary receivers in Hines Ward, Heath Miller and Antwaan Randel-El.
Offensive Edge: Packers
Defense: Pittsburgh’s defense kept the team afloat during the first four weeks of the regular season when Roethlisberger was suspended by the league for violation of the personal conduct policy. Right outside linebacker James Harrison (100 tackles and 11 sacks) is a leading candidate for the NFL Most Valuable Defensive Player award this season, despite being fined more than $100,000 this season for at least four instances of helmet-to-helmet contact on players, a point-of-emphasis preached by the league office for officials to crack down on after a rash of hits around the league put the issue in the spotlight. Harrison plays all-out, and punishes opponents with bone-crushing hits and has a nose for the football.
Teammates James Farrior (109 tackles, six sacks) and LaMarr Woodley (10 sacks) help Harrison in the middle of the new Steel Curtain defense.
Anchoring the Pittsburgh secondary is safety Troy Polamalu (63 tackles and seven interceptions). Polamalu’s presence on the field makes the Steelers a better team defensively. The team’s turnover ratio and points per game surrendered is vastly different, emphasizing his importance to the club. As important, his presence gives the remaining secondary starters of Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark and Bryant McFadden the freedom to play more aggressively on receivers, knowing the All-Pro is in the backfield to back them up.
The Packers have greater young talent across the board defensively than the Steelers, but the veteran experience of the Steelers, with several players now making a third Super Bowl appearance, gives them the slight advantage.
Defensive Edge: Steelers
Special Teams: The Packers have one of the best kickers in the NFL in Mason Crosby. The fourth year pro out of Colorado has converted all 46 of his extra points successfully this season and has a 78.1 percent field goal conversion rate for his career (107 of 137). He has converted 22-of-28 field goal attempts this season, with a long of 56 yards.
Punter Tim Masthay averages 44 yards per punt, and has placed 25 punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line this season.
Traman Williams is Green Bay’s leading punt returner. Williams had a breakout season, starting all 16 games and leading the team with a career-high six interceptions and a career-best 23 passes defensed, but has been a valuable asset in the return game with speed to break a touchdown each time he touches the football.
Kickoff return duties are handled by Nelson and Sam Shields, who each have kickoff returns of approximately 50 yards on their stat sheet this season.
Pittsburgh’s kicking game has been a bit shakier this season. The Steelers cut long-time kicker Jeff Reed after nine games and brought in Shawn Suisham to finish the season. Since his resurfacing in Pittsburgh Suisham has been solid, converting all of his extra point attempts and successfully kicking 14-of-15 field goal attempts.
Pittsburgh lost punter Daniel Sepulveda for the season with a torn right anterior cruciate ligament in the team’s 12th game. Replacing Sepulveda was Jeremy Kapinos, who was signed by the team after a tryout and has averaged 41.9 yards per punt in 18 attempts this season.
In the return game Steelers wideout Antonio Brown is the only player from either team with a return for a touchdown, and has close to 400 kick return yards in 2010. Veteran Randel El also returns punts, while Sanders is the team’s primary kickoff returner who averages more than 25 yards per kickoff return for the year.
Neither team has a glaring advantage in the kicking nor return game based on season statistics. The edge here goes to neither Pittsburgh nor Green Bay, so call it a push.
Special Teams Edge: EVEN
Coaching: Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin replaced a legendary coach in Bill Cowher, and has taken his squad to two Super Bowls in three seasons. He is a player’s coach who has the respect and admiration of his players. It also helps Tomlin to have one of the best defensive minds in the game calling the defensive plays in coordinator and NFL Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau.
Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy led the Packers to the NFC title game in 2007 with Brett Favre calling the signals, but he agreed to the unpopular move at the time of trading the heralded quarterback in favor of giving the reins of the team to an upstart quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. The move has proven wise as he has taken a team that had to win its final two regular season games to simply make the postseason and led them to the cusp of the game’s ultimate prize.
McCarthy has his own talented defensive coordinator in former Panthers head coach and Steelers defensive coordinator Dom Capers.
The chess match between the coaches should be intriguing, but the edge has to go to Tomlin and his staff who have proven on two occasions already that they can get the job done when the most pressure is on them.
Coaching Edge: Steelers
After weighing all the data, one thing is clear: Super Bowl XLV has the potential to be one of the most competitive and exciting championship games of all time. The teams last met in December 2009 in a classic confrontation. If the teams can match the drama of that game, which featured a last-second Roethlisberger touchdown pass for a thrilling victory, fans are in for a treat.
As a lifelong Dallas Cowboys fan, I will be rooting against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who cost the Cowboys a pair of Super Bowl titles in the 1970s before Dallas earned a small measure of revenge in Super Bowl 30. However, in an unbiased analysis, I have to give the AFC champions a slight overall edge to win the big game.
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 31, Green Bay 26
